Santorum Rises

In a near three-way tie of the Iowa state caucuses last night between Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, the clear victor was Seattle's own Dan Savage.

In a count that went on into the night, Mitt Romney pulled out in front of Santorum's statewide spread by a total of 8 votes.  Romney garnered 25% of the state with 30,015 votes, Santorum at his heels with another 25% and 30,007 votes, and Ron Paul with 22% and 26,219.

Santorum won the majority of the counties, but was unable to make up for Romney's victories in high-density areas.

Image (and color choice) credit: FoxNews.com

What does all this mean for the inevitable 2012 Republican vs. Democrat action? Not much. Also, a whole lot! Iowa's caucuses are the first in the country, and therefore get a lot of media attention.  But after the Hawkeye State's 15 minutes of fame, their effect on the general election is minimal.  In 2004, Mike Huckabee won Iowa with 34% of the vote and he's now President of a talk show, and in 1992, Bill Clinton received 3% of the vote and still went on to become the Democratic Nominee and the President.

1st:

Mitt Romney, who has been the Republican Party's long-time front runner and simultaneous red-headed stepchild, received less votes in 2012 (30,015) than he received in 2008 (30,021).  While he's got tons of money, electoral viability, a should-be-illegally-well-funded Super PAC, and the best head to head polls against President Obama, Republicans just don't like him.  If he continues his lead and becomes the Republican Party's Nominee, there's no telling how many Republicans will sit home and refrain from voting November 6th.

2nd:

Rick Santorum's explosion across Iowa yesterday came as a surprise to most people, as his poll numbers were consistently poor right up until the day of the caucuses.  Immediately leading up to the vote, several influential Christian conservatives threw their endorsements his way, and that coupled with a good ground game (Santoum spent 104 days in Iowa leading up to the election) let him surge ahead of the cast of potential not-Romneys.

Santorum's spent most of the campaign touting his social-conservative values, comparing gay marriage to napkins, telling white Iowan's he doesn't want to "make black people's lives better", and coming out "for income-inequality".  In an election year that should be all about the economy, he's got absolutely no ideas on how to lower unemployment. Except of course to annul all the gay-marriages that led to Wall Street's collapse.

Democrats hoping for an easy win in November may be hoping to see Santorum's continued ascension, but 11 more months of bigotry being a central campaign issue in a Presidential election could have horrible unintended consequences.  Studies have repeatedly linked rises in hate crimes against minorities to high profile attacks by politicians.

3rd:

And then there's hyper-Libertarian Ron Paul.  Up until the very end of last night's election, Paul was in a statistical tie with the other two frontrunners.  Paul's numbers were boosted by a huge increase in independent voters turning out to caucus with the Republicans.  His pro-drug, anti-war stances appeals to many who are otherwise tired of the Republican Party.  But a series of racists newsletters and his willingness to let uninsured American's die would make him a hard sell for the White House.

Those cast to the wayside:

Even if the events of last night won't predict the eventual Republican Nominee, it did narrow the field.  After seeing the Christian Conservative vote go to Santorum, Bachmann resigned early this morning.

Newt Gingrich netted only 13% of the vote, a result he blamed on a slew of Romney-funded attack ads that have played throughout Iowa over the last few days.  While he has yet to signal his complete intentions, it's looking more and more like he'll hang around just to knock Romney down a peg or two.

Rick Perry, who pulled in 10% of the vote and landed 5th place, has indicated he plans to move on to South Carolina.

And perennial one-percenter Jon Huntsman has indicated he plans to drudge on.  His campaign put in very little work in a state they couldn't win anyway, and has instead been putting in Santorum-style ground game in New Hampshire, Romney's home territory.

And Pokemaster Herman Cain managed to pull in 58 votes even though he dropped out long ago.  Gone but never forgotten.